AGP Executive Report

Baltic Security Drills: Latvia has kicked off the Namejs’26 national defence exercise, running until October 8, with about 12,000 soldiers and national guardsmen plus allied forces taking part. Border Crackdown: The Vilkatis operation against illegal migration on the Latvia–Belarus border has been extended by a month, with border surveillance stepped up and more than 600 illegal crossings prevented this year. EU-Russia Tensions: Latvia’s Riga City Court released pro-Russia activist Viktor Gushchin from custody, switching to police supervision in a sanctions-violation case. Airline Reshuffle: airBaltic says it will concentrate summer 2027 capacity around its Riga hub, serving 57 destinations from Riga (vs 13 from Tallinn and 8 from Vilnius). Energy Prices: Electricity prices rose across the Baltics in August; Latvia’s average wholesale price was about €80/MWh. Riga Tourism: Riga’s cruise traffic jumped in August, handling 18 ships and around 25,000 passengers, with the season up year-on-year. Global Spillover: A major Nepal–Tibet flood disaster continues, with China reopening the Gyirong border road and hopes fading for more survivors.

airBaltic Network Shift: airBaltic says summer 2027 will cut destinations to 57 from Riga (down from 2026’s higher level), while Tallinn drops to 13 and Vilnius to 8, as the airline concentrates capacity around Riga and seeks interim financing. Riga Tourism: Riga’s cruise season keeps climbing, with August bringing 18 cruise ships and about 25,000 passengers, and the current season up 15% versus last year. Energy Prices: Electricity in the Baltics is getting pricier again after August’s mid-month dip, with Estonia’s costs linked to limited interconnection capacity with Latvia and higher natural gas prices. Security & Russia-Ukraine: Putin orders “massive strikes” on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, while NATO reconnaissance aircraft keep flying over the Baltic Sea region for a second straight day. Latvia Court Case: Riga City Court released pro-Kremlin activist Viktor Gushchin from custody after about nine months, replacing detention with police supervision. Latvia Defence Drills: Latvia’s Namejs 2026 national defence exercise starts today, involving around 12,000 soldiers and reservists with allied participation. EU Response to Drone Attack: EU leaders are debating how to respond after Germany blamed Russia for an attempted drone attack on Leipzig/Halle Airport, with the EU calling it “state sponsored terrorism.”

Baltic Security & EU Response: Germany blamed Russia for a drone incident at Leipzig Airport and expects more hybrid attacks; EU leaders backed Berlin and said EU sanctions and coordination with NATO are being prepared. Riga & airBaltic: airBaltic’s summer 2027 plan keeps Riga as the main hub, with 57 direct destinations from Riga (vs 13 from Tallinn and 8 from Vilnius) and more frequencies on key routes. Latvia–Belarus Border: The government approved expropriation of small private plots in Krāslava and Augšdaugava to build border strip and surveillance infrastructure. Local Politics & Migration: A coalition fight over stricter rules for third-country nationals continues, with the Interior Ministry’s migration recommendations facing criticism over coordination and enforceability. Economy & Tourism: Eurostat data show Latvia’s overnight stays fell 1% in the first half of 2026, while Estonia grew. Education: A military school employee was suspended after a parent complaint about possible unethical behavior, pending an investigation. International: A mudslide on China’s Nepal border left 261 foreigners missing, including 33 Latvians.

Baltic Air Security: NATO scrambled fighter jets after drones approached or entered airspace over Latvia and Estonia early Sept. 1, with alerts issued in regions including Alūksne and Ludza; Estonia reported a drone near Narva and another in the southeast, while Latvia lifted its threat warning by early morning. Russia-Ukraine Fallout: Russia’s strikes on Kyiv continued for a sixth day, with at least 12 killed and dozens injured, including children, as drones and ballistic missiles hit residential areas and infrastructure. Local Policy: Latvia introduced a ban from Sept. 1 on importing Belarusian and Russian books, clothing, toys and other goods, including items of Belarusian/Russian origin routed via third countries. Immigration Politics: Latvia’s National Alliance demanded answers from Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs after he objected to an immigration restriction plan. Court Update: Riga’s Regional Court upheld prison sentences for former Bank of Latvia governor Ilmārs Rimšēvičs and businessman Māris Martinsons in a bribery case. EU Decision-Making: Eleven EU countries urged reforms to reduce veto obstruction in foreign and security policy, proposing “constructive abstentions” and clearer cooperation rules. Business & Cost of Living: Ikea announced a €1.2bn Europe-wide price-cut push as households tighten spending.

Ukraine-Russia: US Treasury chief Scott Bessent told Russia’s finance minister Anton Siluanov that no economic relief is possible until the war in Ukraine ends, as the UK also escalated pressure on Russia’s shadow financial networks. Riga & Baltic security: Latvia and Ukraine discussed urgent defense needs, including air defence and drones, with Riga confirming it will keep security support at least at 0.25% of GDP. NATO nerves: European officials pushed back on claims of an imminent conventional Russian attack after CIA chief John Ratcliffe’s Moscow trip, saying there’s no sign of direct confrontation plans. Frozen assets row: Belgium again rejected using frozen Russian assets to back Ukraine, calling the issue “non-negotiable,” while other EU states keep pressing the idea. Local economy: Latvia’s Q2 GDP growth accelerated to 3.0% year-on-year, led by stronger investment and trade. Tech & business: Tet’s new DC7 data centre in Salaspils received Uptime Institute Tier III Facility certification. Riga culture & community: Entrepreneurs Māris Martinsons and Viesturs Koziols argue Riga needs a stable 20–30-year development plan. Disaster watch: Nepal-Tibet floods left thousands missing, including Latvian nationals reported to the foreign ministry. Sports: Latvia’s Israel basketball hopes were hit as Deni Avdija said Portland didn’t clear him for FIBA qualifiers. Entertainment: Fear Factory announced a new single “Roboticist” and a Riga show at Palladium.

Nepal-Tibet Flood Crisis: The death toll from the Himalayan flash floods has topped 900, with 919 confirmed dead and 4,793 missing as rescuers push into harder-hit areas; Nepal reports 903 deaths and 4,247 missing, while China’s Tibet region has 16 dead and 546 missing, with 592 foreigners unaccounted for on the Nepal side. Latvia Economy: Latvia’s GDP grew faster in Q2, up 3.0% year-on-year (strongest since early 2022), driven by household spending, investment, and rising trade. Immigration Crackdown: Interior Minister Jānis Dombrava is pushing coalition plans for quotas and tighter controls on third-country nationals, including stricter rules for foreign students and employment. Education Fight: Coalition partners are split over changes to student assessment for the new school year, including how centralised exam thresholds should work. Security & Defence: Ukraine asked Latvia for faster delivery of air defence, drones, unmanned ground vehicles and strike capabilities. Riga/Latvia in Focus: Latvia is finalising consular steps to send staff to Kathmandu after the disaster, and reports say all 33 Latvian nationals previously listed as missing are now being checked. Weather: Latvia heads into early September with showers, possible thunderstorms, and cooler autumnal conditions.

Latvia-Ukraine Defense Talks: Kyiv and Riga discussed how to support the next phase of Ukraine’s defense needs, including practical mechanisms for supplying the Ukrainian armed forces and boosting capabilities amid ongoing combat. NATO Tensions & Deterrence: Finland’s president said he sees no basis for claims Russia could attack NATO, stressing deterrence and intelligence findings, while the wider debate keeps Latvia and the Baltics in focus. Global Defense Financing: Canada is pushing a new Defence, Security and Resilience Bank to fund rearmament, with Latvia among supporters, but major economies like Germany and the UK are still holding back—raising questions about getting the top credit rating. Riga Sports Spotlight: Latvia hosts Israel in World Cup qualifying basketball in Riga, with live coverage by Latvian Television. Riga Culture & Community: A documentary festival in Skopje awarded a Latvian minority coproduction, while in Riga families at the “Fantadroms” kite festival were encouraged to build children’s independence by preparing simple meals ahead of the school year. Himalayan Disaster With Latvian Links: After the Nepal-Tibet flash flood, China says 546 people are missing on its side, including 261 foreign nationals from 23 countries—among them 33 from Latvia—while Nepal reports hundreds more missing and rising flood risks.

Global Defence Bank Push: Canada’s PM Mark Carney backs a new Defence, Security and Resilience Bank to fund rearmament, with Latvia among supporters, but key G7 states like Germany and the UK are still holding back—raising doubts about getting the top credit rating. Riga & Latvia in Focus: Ukraine and Latvia met to coordinate urgent defence needs and faster delivery of equipment, including drones and air defence, while Latvia reiterated its ongoing security support. Nepal–Tibet Disaster: A mudslide at Gyirong Port has left 16 dead and 546 missing on China’s side, including 261 foreign nationals from 23 countries—among them 33 Latvians—while Nepal reports 750 dead and thousands missing as rescue teams face renewed flood fears. Travel & Borders: EU biometric checks at crowded borders are set to resume after the September 6 deadline for the summer pause, with airports warning of potential queues. Local Life: Riga’s 825th anniversary kite festival drew families, and a “simple independence” push encouraged children to prepare their own meals ahead of the new school year. Sports: Ne-Waza European Judo Championships in Riga saw Moldova win gold, while airBaltic marked its 31st anniversary and 70 million passengers.

Latvia-Ukraine Defense Talks: Ukraine’s defense leadership met Latvia’s Raivis Melnis to push faster deliveries and deeper cooperation, including ground robotic systems, fiber-optic drones, “middle strike” capabilities and air defense, with Latvia reaffirming security support at least 0.25% of GDP and urging joint work to secure more help for Ukrainian troops. Baltic Security Watch: European officials say they see no sign Russia is preparing a conventional attack on NATO or Baltic states, even as hybrid threats and sabotage concerns keep rising across the region. CIA Moscow Mystery (Latvia link): Reports say CIA chief John Ratcliffe flew to Moscow on a US C-17 that departed from Riga, with Ukraine saying the US shared details of meetings in Moscow; the trip has fueled fears of escalation and debate over whether it was aimed at preventing strikes on NATO allies. Riga Culture: The Riga International Kite Festival drew crowds as people filled the city with colorful kites. Power After Storm: Six days after a major storm, Latvia still reported outages for about 2,500 customers, with insurers logging thousands of claims and the prime minister criticizing the crisis response. Sports (Latvia): Latvia’s Erika Karabeleva placed fifth at the World Taekwondo Women’s Open in China.

Latvia Storm Aftermath: Six days after the Aug. 22 storm, Latvia is still dealing with power outages: about 2,500 customers remain without electricity, and insurers have logged 4,800+ claims, with the prime minister criticizing the crisis response for poor coordination. US-Russia Tensions: The CIA’s John Ratcliffe made a rare trip from Latvia to Moscow, with Poland warning Russia is preparing escalation in the next 7–8 months; Ukraine says it received briefings about Ratcliffe’s meetings with Russian intelligence. Ukraine War Update: Russia hit a Kyiv-area ammunition depot in Bucha district with drones, triggering a major fire and reported fatalities and injuries as Kyiv faced another day of attacks. Regional Security: Sweden will keep supporting Finland with Gripen jets and corvettes through end-2026, citing a deteriorating security situation and drone risks across NATO’s north. Humanitarian Disaster: Nepal-Tibet flash floods and landslides have left at least 2,478 missing and 586 confirmed dead, including hundreds of foreign nationals from dozens of countries, with Latvia among those listed. Culture & Diplomacy: Estonian President Alar Karis wrapped up a farewell visit to Latvia, touring sites in Līgatne and highlighting close bilateral ties.

Power Restoration in Focus: Latvia is still dealing with outages days after a major storm hit on Aug. 22, with about 2,500 customers without power as of Friday morning; the storm damaged grids and disrupted communications, and Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs criticized the response for poor coordination. Baltic Security Boost: Sweden will support Finland’s air surveillance and defense across Finnish territory through at least end-2026, using Gripen jets and corvettes, as drone incidents raise fears of spillover from the war in Ukraine. EU Defence Funding: Latvia received its first payment under the EU’s SAFE defence instrument—€524.7 million out of €3.5 billion—aimed at speeding up joint procurement for missiles, air defence and ground combat systems. CIA-Moscow Fallout: Ukraine says it received information from the US about meetings CIA chief John Ratcliffe held in Moscow, while the unusual C-17 flight route via Riga continues to fuel questions. Nepal-Tibet Floods: The disaster has killed hundreds and left thousands missing, including hundreds of foreign nationals; reports say 30+ countries are affected, with many still “out of communication.”

Nepal-Tibet Floods: Flash floods and landslides on the Nepal-China border have killed at least 543 people and left more than 1,500 missing, including foreigners caught trekking, working, or on pilgrimage; Nepal says it does not need outside rescue teams as helicopters and ground searches continue, while Latvia’s MFA says it is tracking 39 Latvian-linked tourists, with six listed as missing by Nepal authorities. Security on NATO’s Northern Flank: Sweden will back Finland’s air and maritime surveillance with Gripen jets and a corvette through end-2026, as drone incursions raise fears of spillover into Latvia and the Baltics; Latvia’s SAB also warns Russia’s view of Latvia is hardening in a way it says resembles pre-war Ukraine. Latvia Defense Update: Latvia has begun counter-drone trials on its locally assembled Hunter infantry fighting vehicle and plans to take delivery of 84 units, with at least 30% domestic participation. Energy & Industry: Lithuania delivered critical grid equipment to Ukraine’s oblasts; Latvia meanwhile is testing and expanding energy resilience measures. Business & Local Life: airBaltic marks 31 years and 70 million passengers; Girteka is shifting more freight operations into Latvia with locally registered fleets and drivers. Sports: UEFA Conference League league-phase pots were set, with Riga FC among the teams in the draw.

Baltic Security: CIA Director John Ratcliffe made a rare, unannounced trip to Moscow, warning Russia against escalating against NATO allies—especially Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania—while also pressing Moscow to reduce military and economic support for Iran; Local Governance: Latvia’s PM says the country’s military threat level is unchanged and direct invasion risk remains low, after a draft state-of-emergency measure for the eastern border region was withdrawn and revised; Border Control: Latvia’s Border Guard chief says Belarusian services were likely aware of migrant tunnels under the border fence, with a second tunnel found in Krāslava and more expected; Defense Cooperation: UK Royal Navy commander says the UK-led JEF coalition can act faster than NATO in northern Europe, with Latvia included; Economy & Trade: Baltic grain exporters report a surge in bookings as Black Sea supply disruptions push buyers toward Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia; Riga Sports: Latvia hosts Israel in World Cup qualifiers in Riga, while Poland beat Israel in Riga earlier this window; International Disaster: Nepal–Tibet flash floods keep growing in scale, with hundreds dead and more than 1,400 missing, including people from dozens of countries.

Security Update: Latvia’s President Edgars Rinkēvičs says the risk of a direct Russian invasion remains low and that sabotage, cyberattacks and hybrid operations are still the main concern, while Latvia’s PM Andris Kulbergs also downplays “brink of war” fears. CIA–Moscow Fallout: Reports say CIA chief John Ratcliffe warned Russia against escalating against NATO, especially the Baltics, but the Kremlin calls the claims “scare-story material” and says Ratcliffe met Russian intelligence officials without meeting Putin. Local Governance: Latvia’s Ministry of Climate and Energy has withdrawn a draft that would have declared a state of emergency in the eastern border region’s critical sectors, saying the move was to avoid public misunderstanding while work continues on a temporary legal solution. Riga Life: Rīgas satiksme will offer free public transport on September 1, with autumn timetables starting soon after. Elections Cybersecurity: Latvia’s election system checks found vulnerabilities, including one rated critical, and repeat tests are underway. Travel Disaster: Nepal–Tibet flash floods have killed hundreds and left more than 1,300 missing, including hundreds of foreign tourists.

Latvia’s Defence Industry Boost: Estonia’s Wolfram Europa plans a €200 million investment to build an explosives and warhead production complex in Jēkabpils, with construction starting later this year and production targeted for 2027, creating about 200 high-skill jobs. EU Budget & Security: European Council President António Costa wrapped up a Baltic tour by pushing for a faster deal on the EU’s 2028–2034 budget, linking funding to defence readiness, support for Ukraine, and stronger protection of the Eastern flank amid drone and hybrid threats. US-Russia Tensions, Latvia in the Spotlight: CIA chief John Ratcliffe’s unannounced Moscow trip—tracked via a US C-17 flight route that included Riga—was confirmed by the Kremlin as intelligence-to-intelligence contacts, with Putin briefed but not meeting Ratcliffe; Trump said the visit could “produce results” as Washington seeks an end to the Ukraine war. Regional Migration Pressure: Latvia’s Foreign Minister Baiba Braže discussed illegal migration and hybrid threats with US envoy John Coale, including Latvia’s NATO commitments and defence spending. Local Governance: Latvia published 15 grounds for rejecting long-term residence permits for foreigners, including false information, financial shortfalls, security concerns, and marriage fraud.

US-Russia Intelligence Ties: CIA chief John Ratcliffe made an unannounced Moscow trip after a C-17 flight routed via Riga, with the Kremlin confirming “contacts between security services” but denying any meeting with Vladimir Putin. Baltic Security Watch: Latvian FM Baiba Braze said Russia has increased “sub-military, sub-conventional” hybrid activity and Latvia is pushing for stronger radars, sensors, anti-drone tools and layered air defence. Local Transport: From Aug 26, the “Rīga Single Ticket” works across all Vivi train zones (A–E) and connects with a 90-minute Rīgas satiksme ride on buses/trams/trolleybuses via the Vivi Latvija app or vivi.lv. Defence Industry Investment: Wolfram Europa plans a €200m explosives and warhead complex near Jēkabpils, with production starting in 2027 and about 200 jobs. Ports Digitisation: Riga, Ventspils and Liepāja completed a unified digital platform to streamline port services and logistics. Energy & Environment: A study in the Gulf of Riga found wind-farm noise can spread herring schools, but spring spawning impact looks limited.